UK MP Expenses Claims Most Affected By Rising Inflation

Reports suggest that The Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA) will assess whether the Pensions Minister Paul Maynard broke parliamentary rules by using taxpayer money to fund Conservative Party work and campaigning.

With this in mind, Digital PR company Reboot Online examined parliamentary spending across the UK to formulate an MP expenses claim list that assessed the impact of rising inflation and the cost of living crisis on the spending habits of MPs up and down the country.

This involved analysing UK MP expenses data from the IPSA. Using a linear model based on historic data between 2016-22, total UK MP expenses was forecast for 2021-24 and then adjusted for Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation using a combination of OECD and forecasted rates. This helped to determine the degree to which UK MP expenses have been affected by recent economic pressures, and which MPs could see the biggest percentage change to their spending.

The constituencies where MPs could have their expenses cut the most in 2024

A breakdown of the top 10 UK constituencies likely to see a cut to MP expenses in 2024

Constituency	Region	MP	2021 spending (£)	2024 forecasted spending (£)	Percentage change (%) (2021-24)
Brentwood and Ongar	Essex	Alex Burghart	122,103.87	87,123.46	-28.65
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	Scotland	Sandra Osborne	189,473.74	141,668.23	-25.23
Kingswood	South Gloucestershire	Chris Skidmore	160,457.82	128,795.57	-19.73
Gordon	Scotland	Richard Thomson	246,596.12	201,013.46	-18.48
South Down	Northern Ireland	Chris Hazzard	216,607.50	179,977.81	-16.91
North Swindon	Wiltshire	Justin Tomlinson	179,602.50	151,996.57	-15.37
South Thanet	Kent	Craig Mackinlay	171,418.80	146,098.75	-14.77
Morecambe and Lunesdale	Lancashire	David Morris	188,965.55	161,845.10	-14.35
Dumfries and Galloway	Scotland	Alister Jack	189,775.33	166,230.75	-12.41
Rochdale	Greater Manchester	Tony Lloyd	252,030.94	222,362.54	-11.77

(Source: Reboot Online via House of Commons Library, IPSA, and OECD)

Our in-house data specialists forecast that Brentwood and Ongar (Essex) will suffer the largest cut to MP expenses of all UK constituencies in 2024. Our MP expenses list anticipates that the cost of their MP claims could decrease by more than a quarter (-28.65%) by 2024 compared to 2021 figures. This is in stark contrast to neighbouring Epping Forest, which is expected to see an increase of around two-thirds (+67.36%) between 2021-24.

Scotland’s Ayr, Cannock and Cumnock is also expected to see a significant reduction in its MP spending between 2021-24, by just over a quarter (-25.23%). A similar story is forecast for Gordon in north east Scotland, which is likely to see a spending reduction of around a fifth by 2024 (-18.48%).

Likewise, Kingswood (South Gloucestershire) is expected to receive a cut in the cost of MP expenses by almost a fifth (-19.73%) by 2024 – the most significant reduction of all constituencies in the South West region. Yet, the neighbouring constituency of Filton and Bradley Stoke is likely to experience the opposite, with a forecasted rise of 19.84% in its MP expenditure between 2021-24.

The constituencies with the largest projected rise in MP expenses in 2024

A breakdown of the top 10 UK constituencies likely to see a rise in MP expenses in 2024

Constituency	Region	MP	2021 spending (£)	2024 forecasted spending (£)	Percentage change (%) (2021-2024)
Kettering	Northamptonshire	Philip Hollobone	93,265.21	162,692.48	74.44
Swansea West	Wales	Geraint Davies	188,949.82	319,958.54	69.34
Walthamstow	Greater London	Stella Creasy	249,844.49	422,336.27	69.04
Epping Forest	Essex	Eleanor Laing	215,764.92	361,108.15	67.36
East Antrim	Northern Ireland	Sammy Wilson	209,139.31	347,744.22	66.27
Newport West	South Wales	Ruth Jones	247,584.72	409,891.60	65.56
Chingford and Woodford Green	North East London	Iain Duncan Smith	217,451.21	358,078.22	64.67
Leyton and Wanstead	Greater London	John Cryer	249,424.48	399,844.19	60.31
Newport East	South Wales	Jessica Morden	228,233.90	361,833.66	58.54
Bolsover	Derbyshire	Mark Fletcher	229,479.68	354,649.72	54.55

(Source: Reboot Online via House of Commons Library, IPSA, and OECD)

Our UK MP expenses list suggests Kettering (Northamptonshire) is forecast to see a rise of almost three-quarters (+74.44%) in its MP expenditure by 2024. This is significantly higher than neighbouring Daventry, with a projected increase of less than a tenth (+8.59%).

Swansea West is also projected to be among the most affected by a rise in MP expenses in 2024. An MP in this constituency can expect to see their expenditure claims increase by more than two-thirds (+69.34%) in 2024 compared to 2021. By contrast, nearby Swansea East is expected to see a relatively minor increase of +8.6% during the same period.

Walthamstow in Greater London is ranked as the third most likely UK constituency to see a significant increase in the cost of MP expenses between 2021-24, rising to over £422,000 by 2024 (+69.04% compared to 2021 levels).

Methodology

We performed research to find the MPs most affected by the recent cost of living crisis.
Firstly, yearly total spending and individual business spending data was obtained, cleaned and collated.
- Note: Data was obtained from 2016 onwards due to constituencies changing names, joining, etc, the previous year. Some did not have complete records; thus, any constituency that had more than 2 years of consecutive missing data was excluded.
Total spending data was forecasted for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 using a simple linear model based on previous yearly data. All total spending data was then CPI inflation-adjusted using OECD and forecasted rates. CPI inflation adjustments allow us to take into account the cost of living crisis in a way and the real-term increase/reduction in spending.
- Note: we use OECD forecasted rates as their model and will try to take into account macroeconomic factors we cannot with a simple linear model.
Individual business spending data was CPI inflation-adjusted and analysed.
- Note: Business data seems to be inaccurate past 2021 but can still have importance.
- Note: Information is withheld for reasons of security or data protection. The spreadsheets available for the two most recent financial years might not yet reflect the final positions for those years, thus the official available data from step 4 years 2023 and 2024 will not be accurate.
To compensate for the above note, individual business spending was forecasted and analysed for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024. This was done using the inflation-adjusted data instead of the original data.

Sources

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9428/

https://www.theipsa.org.uk/mp-staffing-business-costs/annual-publications

https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-cpi.htm